Spending on political advertising is projected to smash all-time records in 2020 as President Donald Trump and his Democratic opponent battle for control of the White House.
Advertising Analytics, a political ad-tracking firm, expects the total cost of TV and digital ads for the next election to hit over $6 billion — a 57 percent increase over the total in last year’s hotly contested and expensive midterm elections, driven by a huge jump in digital video advertising.
Over one-quarter of the $6 billion total, $1.6 billion, will be spent on digital video platforms, primarily Facebook and Google, while broadcast and cable TV stations will take in a whopping $4.4 billion — more than twice as much as Democrats and Republicans spent on TV in the last presidential elections.
The projections reflect both the massive field of Democratic candidates vying to take on Trump as well as the brawl expected between Trump and the nominee, centering on a handful of key states. Advertising Analytics projects presidential general election spending in two swing states alone — Florida and Pennsylvania — to top $600 million combined. Congressional and gubernatorial races will also account for more than $2 billion in spending, including $1 billion on the battle for the House of Representatives, breaking a record set in 2018.
And the firm expects to see Democratic presidential candidates and their allies spent $971 million on TV and digital ads in their primary, before the party even gets to the business of running against Trump. The estimate is a 71 percent increase over Democratic spending in the 2016 presidential primaries.
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The high volume of spending is propelled by a wave of small and large donors who are newly animated to give to candidates up and down the ballot.
“There is so much new money in the system,” said Kyle Roberts, Advertising Analytics CEO. “We’ve overlaid that rate of growth into the spending [projections].”
After helping Democratic candidates break fundraising records in 2018, the Democratic online fundraising platform ActBlue notched its second-biggest day ever on Sunday, more than 16 months before the 2020 election, with donors giving more than $12 million to candidates and groups using the service. Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign has been banking money since soon after he took office, and it recently backed the launch of WinRed, a donation service Republicans hope will serve as an ActBlue-style clearinghouse for digital donations on the right.
Other media-tracking firms have also released projections for spending in 2020, ranging from $8 billion to $10 billion. But Advertising Analytics survey isolated its estimates to persuasion communications: TV ads and digital video ads that target voters. That total doesn’t include spending on, for example, Facebook ads soliciting donations to qualify for the Democratic presidential debates. Nor does the total include email list-building or get-out-the-vote ads on digital platforms, or candidates’ mail or phone-banking programs.
“This is the first time that digital persuasion video has been isolated and aligned, meaning we can compare what’s happening on TV directly to what’s happening online,” Roberts said. Voters can expect to see 8 million broadcast airings of TV ads, which is 2.5 million more TV ads than were seen in 2018. Digital videos, which often appear on social media platforms, will also more than double in 2020 over 2018.
Anticipating a shifting battleground in the presidential race, Advertising Analytics predicts that Michigan will draw $121 million in advertising and Wisconsin will get $67 million, as Democrats attempt to rebuild their foothold in the Midwest. Meanwhile, Ohio — a traditional swing state that has trended more conservative in recent years — is set to see will only see $39 million in general election spending.
Arizona, which Democrats believe could be a presidential battleground for the first time in years thanks to changing demographics, is set to draw $141 million in presidential general election advertising, Advertising Analytics projects. The firm also expects the Arizona Senate race — featuring appointed GOP Sen. Martha McSally, who faces a special election for the remainder of the late Sen. John McCain’s term — to be the most expensive in the nation next year.
Advertising Analytics also named Virginia and Minnesota as “dark-horse” states which “could see higher spending than projected, as they look like two of President Trump’s best opportunities to add to his 2016 haul.” Hillary Clinton won Virginia by 5 points and Minnesota by 2 points in 2016. In 2020, the firm projects the states will draw a combined $41 million in spending.
Drilling further down the ballot, Advertising Analytics estimates that 10 House races will feature more than $10 million of advertising in 2020, a sharp increase compared to the six House races that totaled eight figures in 2018.
In another sign of the rapidly changing political landscape, that projected lineup of uber-expensive House races is composed of districts that were not considered competitive even a few years ago, in suburbs of Atlanta, Dallas and Houston that were drawn by Republican legislators to elect Republican members of Congress earlier this decade.
More than a third of the spending in House races, totaling $390 million, will be directed at Democrats that are representing congressional districts Trump won in 2016.
Senate race spending could see an overall dip of about 14 percent in 2020 compared to 2018, Advertising Analytics predicts. But that budget could grow if more battleground races come onto the map, as they did last year. Even if that doesn’t happen, the firm expects advertising costs in Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, Kentucky, Maine and Georgia to exceed $50 million per state.
Similarly, governor’s races will not dominate the 2020 spending landscape. But North Carolina is still expected to draw another $50 million, as Republicans seek to knock off Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper in the red-leaning state.